THEATRES OF WAR

25 March 2026

Dear 50 International,

Ukraine’s strength was forged by the uprising against President Yanukovych’s corruption, the 2014 state killings in Maiden Square and the 1932-33 Holodomor famine when Stalin’s confiscated food with peasant migration blocked; some 3 to 5 million starved to death! Soviet policies to break Ukrainian resistance and nationalism fed the arrogance of Putin’s ‘special military operation’. Thus, unsurprisingly, an entire nation has become highly motivated enemies with the Bucha Massacre, the Mariupol Theatre Airstrike, troves of war crimes and strikes on civilian infrastructure further fuelling Ukraine’s resilience.

After initial losses Ukraine has used this experience with extraordinary ingenuity to decimate Russia’s Navy, Airforce and its oil processing infrastructure all the while mastering drone and robotic warfare. Now they regain territory with 21st century ‘bite and hold’ drone controlled grey zones enabled by fully integrated real time battlefield data. Hard earned skills and technology which have become a significant arms industry of $4-6 Billion per annum. Ukraine is forging itself into a modern state with honed skills and knowledge now invaluable to the West and the Gulf.

Thus, we come to Iran which has spent tens of billions funding Hezbollah, Hamas, and proxy terrorist groups to attack the world and now the Arabian Peninsula. The 1979 Iranian Revolution established a Shi’a republic: a direct challenge to the Arabian monarchies. In this, Iran’s Shi’a sincerely believe that Al-Madhi, the 12th Imam (disappeared in AD 941), is alive to return at ‘the end of history’ to replace an evil world with true global Islamic rule! Currently, a broken economy ring fenced by a dangerous insular Russia aided defiance.

This against the Gulf embracing Western tourists, international business with women occupying key roles in business and governance and Dubai a global travel, commercial and financial centre. In this Dubai’s population of 4 million is 90% expats as workers or the tax-sheltered entrepreneurial glamour. The Gulf, as property values face questions, is using tech to fight drones and demonstrate calming resilience.

Whilst Ukraine has a definable end point Iran’s is sacrificial, for a pure Islam, whilst sheltering a corrupt hardline regime set against the 42% of Iranians who are under 30, internet savvy seeing global culture through VPNs and Islam as state repression; each side is digging in as smart tech destroys the regimes internal control points as Riyadh routes oil to the Red Sea with Hormuz being blockaded. As the world faces hostaged oil and gas, it is the vulnerable desalination plants that the Arabian Peninsula must protect, an inverted mix of oil and water!

Geopolitically, a war to curtail China’s ambitions after the US seized Venezuela it now, by default has contained Iran’s oil; a double-edged sword. In this, economic models are threatened, trading routes upended with energy security challenged; inflation and shortages with no preparation time! All framed by US debt levels and hybrid wars of hacked bank accounts and IP with social media increasingly weaponised.

Buffeted in these events families need to re-evaluate tax strategies, portfolios and safety against asymmetrical theatres of war.

All the best

Alistdair